Ruidoso Downs Experts Pick Their Favorites in the 2020 Belmont Stakes
Ruidoso Downs Race Track handicapping experts look at the field for the 2020 Belmont Stakes scheduled to be run June 20, 2020, at 5:42 pm EDT.
Mike Dimoff, Ruidoso Downs Race Track Announcer
It’s the 3rd week of June which is traditionally reserved for the hoisting of the Stanley Cup and as far as the Belmont Stakes, the 1st jewel of the triple......wait ..WHAT....the FIRST jewel ? Well ....the mile and a half ........wait...wait just a minute. Who made the Belmont a mile and an eighth. It’s a small sacrifice horseplayers are willing to make because in this toppsyfloppy’s world racing has given sports fans something to look forward to and in many regards has had a positive spotlight. The 2020 Triple Crown, especially if we have a triple crown winner, will most certainly have an asterisk next to it in the record books.
TAP IT TO WIN is an improving horse that was meant for great things. Although his bankroll is a mere shadow of the other entrant which starts with the letter T, his bloodlines run neck and neck with the likely race favorite. He is a different horse in 2020 and I’d be curious to know when he was made a ridgling. Don’t be surprised if he outruns his odds.
TIZ THE LAW. The last time Barclay Tagg and the Sakatoga Stable were supposed to win the Belmont it was with another NY bred that not only won the hearts of New Yorkers but captivated the whole country. Funny Cide fell short of triple crown glory after winning the Derby and Preakness. TTL is the horse to beat and doesn’t take much imagination amongst horseplayers.
SOLE VOLANTE will be closing hard and if a horse can be affected by COVID than this may be that one horse when the Belmont distance got cut back to 1 1/8 as a result of the racing worlds rescheduling. DR POST. is my dark horse. He WILL be a special horse. It’s only a matter of time. Question is will it be today. Watch out!
Tim Keithley, Director of Marketing/Handicapper
Looking at the Belmont Stakes at a mile-and-an-eighth makes you feel a little short-changed. One of the highlights of a racing fans’ year is that final stretch drive of the Triple Crown when you wonder which horse has true stamina to make it to the finish line.
TIZ THE LAW is my choice in the Belmont having won the Florida Derby—the top Triple Crown prep-- by more than four lengths. The colt is 4-for-5 in the win column with strong bloodlines and race credentials.
MODERNIST is one to consider for the Bill Mott barn. That trainer is just one win shy of his 5,000th career victory—wouldn’t that be cool if it came in the Belmont? We hear this would be the horse if the race were going the regular mile-and-a-half Belmont distance.
TAP IT TO WIN appears to be a superstar on the rise. This ridgling will probably be helped by the change in this year’s distance—might be fate.
Mike Ahrens, Ruidoso Downs Official Clocker
While the Belmont Stakes has been run at distances other than a mile and a half in the past, it has never been run prior to the Kentucky Derby on the racing calendar. With the disruption of racing in much of the country due to COVID-19 and the Kentucky Derby rescheduled for September, Belmont Park elected to shorten the distance to one mile and one-eighth for this year's running as most three-year-olds have not had any preps at the longer distances yet this year, but keep it more or less in the same spot on their calendar. This will be the third time it has been run at such a short distance, having also been run at nine furlongs back in 1893-94.
There is a heavy favorite in this year's edition, Tiz The Law, who will be breaking from post eight. This New York-bred son of Constitution out of the Tiznow mare Tizfiz has the same ownership group and trainer as another NY-bred, Funny Cide, victor of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2003 who missed a bid for the Triple Crown when finishing third that year. The connections hope to start another Triple Crown attempt this year in the race they missed with Funny Cide, and this runner certainly boasts credentials to make him a heavy favorite, with a sharp win in the Champagne Stakes (G1) as a two-year-old and wins in the Holy Bull (G3) and Florida Derby (G1)this year. The Champagne was run at a one-turn mile on the Belmont surface but his last three starts have been around two turns. With the distance of this year's Belmont being cut back to one mile and one-eighth, it will be a one-turn event. But this horse does have tactical speed and breaking from outside he should sit just off the leaders ready to pounce. Linda Rice attempts to become the first female trainer to win a Triple Crown race when she sends out Max Player. This colt has had a lot in the press about how well he's been training but comes in with only three starts and the last of those being in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct back on February 1. That's over four-and-a-half-months and could be a tall order for a horse who, although he has plenty of training, may not be battle-ready enough.
On the other extreme is almost a throwback to the old days when trainers would race their horses more frequently and often had a prep race nearer to the main event than do today's trainers. Sole Volante, trained by Patrick Biancone, comes off a one-turn one-mile allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on June 10, just 10 days prior to the Belmont. This runner comes from far back and so would benefit from a lively pace scenario, but always comes running and finishes very strongly.
The second-choice on the morning line at 9/2 and having four wins, a second and a third from six-lifetime starts, this gelding will be part of all of my wagers, as I expect he should run no worse than third given that he always shows up running and some of the others have question marks. Drawn along the rail is Tap It To Win for trainer Mark Casse. This riding is speedy but breaking from the rail will have to go to the front and the question is how much pressure from outside he will face. Modernist, trained by Bill Mott, was just off the lead in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds two back but that was with slower early fractions, while Pneumatic for trainer Steve Asmussen battled for the lead before yielding late when last seen in the Matt Win (G3) at Churchill Downs May 23. Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out two in Dr Post, most recently a winner of a small stakes at Gulfstream back in April who was just off the leaders, and Farmington Road, who made a moderate middle move before flattening out to finish fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
The most likely winner, as I see it, is Tiz The Law, albeit at a short price. The most likely to finish strongly and garner at least a placing is Sole Volante, the second choice. So unless I am wrong about these two, or a longshot like Fore Left for trainer Doug O'Neill, who won the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) in early February, or Jungle Runner, likely the longest shot in the field and the second entrant for Steve Asmussen, can sneak in there, it appears this year's running will result in some fairly small payoffs. But it should be an exciting race to begin the Triple Crown regardless.